Tropical Weather: Sunday May 31

Current Tropical Status

In their morning briefings, the National Hurricane Center confirms that an active tropical wave has progressed westward overnight, stretching along 105°W south of 14°N. The monsoon trough remains highly active with multiple embedded low-pressure centers maintaining strong convection far to the south of the peninsula, leaving the immediate shipping lanes and coastal waters around the peninsula entirely free of any active storms.

Tropical Weather Outlook

While satellite imagery captures intense convective cells well to the south along the monsoon trough, the official marine discussions show that a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form during the next few days well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear highly conducive for development thereafter, and the NHC notes that a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of this week. The projected steering currents keep this system on a definitive westward to west-northwestward track, moving it safely out into the deeper western portion of the East Pacific, presenting zero immediate threat to regional landmasses or maritime operators.