National Hurricane Center (NHC) Morning Update
Current Tropical Status
In their morning briefings, the National Hurricane Center confirms that Tropical Storm Cristina is currently meandering offshore along the coast of Central America. As of early Wednesday morning, the center of the storm was located near 12.4°N 88.5°W, moving slowly to the west at approximately 3 mph. The system is maintaining maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread along portions of the coastline within the warning area—specifically from Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua to the Guatemala/El Salvador border—through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall totaling 4 to 8 inches, with maximum totals reaching 12 inches, is expected across coastal portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala through Thursday morning, creating a risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides in areas of steep terrain.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Beyond the active status of Tropical Storm Cristina, tropical cyclone formation is not expected across the Eastern North Pacific basin during the next seven days. In the Atlantic basin, the National Hurricane Center similarly does not expect tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days, although forecasters are continuing to monitor a broad area of low pressure that may emerge from the Yucatán Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche later this week. That system is currently being monitored for potential development, though chances remain relatively low at this time.
Tropical Weather Outlook & Analysis
The tropical weather matrix across the southern sectors of the Northeast Pacific is undergoing rapid structural adjustments this morning. Concurrently, Tropical Storm Cristina continues to churn off the coast of Central America, heavily impacting coastal landmasses with extensive rainfall hazards.
The monsoon trough remains highly active, well south of the Baja Pacific boundary zone, containing multiple embedded low-pressure nodes. While these active cyclones are generating significant offshore wave energy, the steering configurations keep their hazardous wind fields securely isolated to the southern mainland and Central American coastlines.
As a result, the shipping lanes and coastal waters immediately surrounding the peninsula remain entirely clear of any tropical storm conditions today.
In-Depth Tropical Systems Analysis
Tropical Storm Cristina
According to the 6:00 AM CST Intermediate Advisory 9A, Tropical Storm Cristina is located near 12.4°N, 88.8°W, positioned offshore along the coast of Central America. The system is creeping along a slow westward trajectory at a crawl of only 3 mph, carrying maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb.
The low-level center remains just offshore over exceptionally warm waters, subjecting nearby coastal landmasses to intense convective dynamics. Recent radar and satellite imagery capture a well-defined, compact curved band anchoring to the southwest of the center, with a larger area of newer, deep convection exploding within 180 nautical miles throughout its southern semicircle offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala.
The track forecast indicates Cristina will execute a definitive turn toward the west-northwestward and northwestward during the next day or so while approaching Central America. By Thursday morning, the core is projected to move inland directly within the warning area across El Salvador and into Guatemala.
While land interaction with the steep, mountainous terrain will prompt rapid friction-induced weakening and lead to total dissipation by Thursday night, the system poses a severe, multi-day deluge threat capable of producing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across steep coastal terrain, as well as extremely hazardous conditions across nearby coastal waters.
Long-Range Tropical Outlook and Extended Dynamics
Looking at the broader horizon for the weeks ahead, the atmospheric profile indicates a transition controlled primarily by non-tropical synoptic drivers, leaving the peninsular waters highly stable.
The baseline of sea surface temperatures across the lower peninsular waters remains sharply defined, with intense coastal upwelling anchoring a distinctly cool profile along the northern and central Pacific margins, contrasting heavily against a warming trend inside the Gulf of California. While the broad surface ridge currently extending near the Revillagigedo Islands will continue to dominate today, it is forecast to begin a gradual weakening phase and shift steadily westward through the upcoming weekend. This macro-alignment is being forced by a broad low-pressure trough hanging along the Southern California coast that is drifting slowly westward into the open Pacific, helping to maintain our accelerated morning marine layer clearing over land.
In the near term, our attention remains anchored on the open waters of the outer Pacific shelf where fresh to occasionally strong northwesterly winds dominate. This energy is actively merging with a powerful, long-period cross-equatorial southerly swell moving upward through the Baja waters, creating a highly irregular and rough combined sea state that will gradually subside through tonight.
As the mid-level ridge steering mechanisms evolve later this month, we anticipate that deep tropical moisture layers will remain locked securely well south of the international shipping lanes. With the National Hurricane Center indicating zero tropical cyclone formation across the broader Eastern North Pacific basin during the next seven days, the peninsular weather profile will remain dry, stable, and entirely clear of active tropical threats.
Satellite-Radar Imaging - NE Pacific
Wind Forecast Models
